Coming off of two demoralizing losses, 1-0 loss to Hartford and a 5-0 loss to Louisville, it easy to overreact and say that the team is horrible. But is that really the case? What is happening to not allow the key cogs of this team to turn and produce? It’s going to be easy to just blindly say, “The defense!” but I don’t think that’s exactly the case.

Nerdy Number Stuff

xG is a number calculated to predict how many goals a team will score and/or concede during a match or over the stretch of the season. My personal opinion is that xG should be used to see what SEASON norms are, not on a match-by-match bases to see who the better team actually was.

So, why am I saying that? Because the xG breakdown is quite interesting. According to American Soccer Analysis, in 2023, Birmingham Legion FC gave up an xG of 47.42 on a total of 388 shots. Average all that out over a season? That’s an xG of 1.394 per match on 11.411 shots per match.

Let’s break that down EVEN farther. That is a total of 0.122 xG/per shot taken. Let’s compare that to the best team in the league in 2023, Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC. They allowed 27.58 xG on 289 shots during their Players’ Shield Run. That averages out 0.811 xG per game, and 8.5 shots per match. This breaks down to a total of 0.095 xG/per shot taken.

“Kaylor, I’m confused and you’re stupid. None of this matters. The difference of 0.027 is literally nothing.” Let’s look at what many believe to have been the best defense in the USL in 2023, Sacramento Republic. They allowed an average of 11.029 shots per match on an average xG of 1.124 per match. Those look a lot like Legion’s numbers, right? It’s an average of 0.102 xG/per shot.

“You’re really getting worked up over 0.02? That’s 2%. That means literally nothing.” What is means is that Legion were not giving up more chances than the best teams in the league, but the QUALITY of those chances were much better than those at the very top. That makes me believe that there were defensive issues in 2023.

“None of this is 2024, stupid.” I know. I’m getting there. In 2024, Legion have allowed an xG of 9.58 on 63 shots. That’s an average of xG of 3.193 per match on an average of 21 shots per match. That’s an average of 0.152 xG/per shot. There’s a couple of things that are not passing the sniff test for me here. Most of that xG and shots were accrued against Hartford (5.23 xG/27 shots) and Louisville City (2.83 xG/18 shots).

“See! The defense SUCKS! Sell everybody and fire the entire Front Office into the sun!” If you watched those matches, there’s a clear issue that was not the defense.

Dominated in the Midfield

My soccer hot take? Defenses don’t allow 21 shots per match. Midfields do. If your midfield cannot control the game, then your backline is going to be under pressure all match long, and thus shots will be taken.

After spending essentially 5 years of existence in dominating midfields, there really isn’t one right now. The heat map on the left is Legion’s match versus Hartford, and the heat map on the right is Legion’s match versus Louisville City.

There is a common hole there, and it is the defensive midfield. How is that happening? Where is the breakdown? The fact of the matter is that Legion are playing a 3 back system but allowing AJ Paterson to play left back at the same time.

AJ Paterson, while he is dropping in deep as that left Center Back, he’s also allowed to bomb up the pitch as a left back. This is not an issue by itself. That is largely the reason why Alex Crognale is playing the Central Center Back role. They want AJ to be the ball playing center back, when in the past it was Crognale. How does that effect the midfield, though?

In order for AJ to go up and keep that 3 Back shape, somebody has to drop in deep. That person has been Kobe Hernandez-Foster. This was ESPECIALLY obvious in the Louisville City match (image on the right). Here’s what’s happening.

Like we have discussed in the past with the Double Pivot, the simple part of this is “one goes up, one goes back.” It’s a simple game of “fill in the space”, but what we’re seeing is the Center Mid is going up to be an option for Paterson, even though there is a Left Midfielder (often Diba Nwegbo or Tyler Pasher) to fill the same gap. How do you fix this?

In my personal opinion, I think sliding Kavita and Crognale over and letting Kobe sit in between is the answer. This will allow that central midfielder to continue to be an option and still give our center backs a little bit more coverage. But I think there’s one final answer to get the most out of this defense.

Switch Kavita and Crognale. When you have two talented ball carrying center backs, why not use that versatility? If Crognale is planning to link the play between defense and attack, why not let him? He has done it for 4 years now in Black and Gold. If Paterson wants to link up the play, why not let him? He did it masterfully in Charleston and has proved that he CAN do that here. Instead of being so one dimensional, this will provide more variety in attack and allow our back line to utilize their strengths.

What About the Other Midfield Hole?

Well… You see… That one isn’t so easy to fix. There isn’t a system fix I can come up with unless you COMPLETELY change the system, and this article is already way too long. The answer is either sign a true CAM or sign another striker.

Mohamed Buya Turay has been missing from the two most recent match day line ups, pushing either Tabort Etaka Preston or Enzo Martinez forward. Either are fine options, but if you move Preston up top, who will you play at Right Midfield? Mujeeb Murana looks like a great talent, but he did not look ready yet. If you move Enzo Martinez up top, that’s fine, but do you trust Miguel Perez to link up play? Maybe not yet.

If Mohamed Buya Turay returns, I genuinely think that this team will be okay. If not, then I’m not so sure unless reinforcements are brought in as soon as possible. My answer? A big striker.

Crossing Woes

I know I said this article is too long, but here I am. Part of the big issue in scoring now is that there is nobody in the middle to pass the ball off to. Preston could be that answer, but we’ve already discussed the hole left if he goes up top.

If you look at the picture above, that is every single pass made in that area where the giant CAM hole was versus Louisville City. If you notice, almost every single pass is going out wide. I know the meme around Legion Twitter for a while was “Oop! All Wingers!”, but this is where it is very obvious. Almost every single pass went into the wings, not through the middle.

Based on what I’m seeing, it appears that Legion want their striker to be more of a “False 9” type. For people who don’t really understand that, think about what Juan Agudelo was doing when he was at his best with Legion. Get the ball deep, play it on, and sit near the top of the box for a cut back or get ready for a rebound. This works really well when you have a good ball playing striker (Enzo, Buya Turay, Preston) and great wingers.

The issue is that the cross is not being respected whatsoever. There is little-to-zero size on the pitch for Legion in the attacking half. Which means most teams can ignore the crossing option and focus nearly fully on the shot coming from the Right or Left Wing.

How does size fix that? Simple. It forces teams to respect something else. It is why when Legion were at their best last year, Juan Agudelo was in the middle of pitch. Not only could he hold up the ball, the pure size of him made teams respect the header.

Is this a bit of fairytale land? Obviously, but forcing defenses to respect three options instead of just one will put more strain on a backline. My personal suggestion? 6’1″ striker Markus Naglestad, formerly of Chattanooga FC. The big man is a clinical striker who has 160 goals to his name as a professional. He’s a big body who can win headers, is reliable as a passer, and will make this team much less one-dimensional.